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Fearless Oscar Predictions 2025

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It is time! And whether you think Wicked was wonderful, Emilia Pérez was overrated or Nosferatu needed more love, one thing is certain. It will be tough for this year’s Oscar broadcast to reach the wild heights of last year. (Please bring back Nicolas Cage, Kate McKinnon and Ryan Gosling!)

In the meantime, here are our predictions for this year’s big winners:

Actress in a Supporting Role

For a while, it looked like Netflix’s big bet this year was going to make a big splash at Oscar. But as the race draws to a close, we think Emilia Pérez will content itself with just one win.

Should win: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Will win: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

  • Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
  • Ariana Grande, Wicked
  • Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
  • Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
  • Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Actor in a Supporting Role

What a great field this year. Each actor cut an unforgettable character.

Should win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Will win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

  • Yura Borisov, Anora
  • Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
  • Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
  • Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
  • Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

There were two real standouts in this field in 2024. We believe one of those two will go home empty handed, but the other will take home the Oscar.

Should win: Greg Kwedar, Clint Bentley, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield, Sing Sing

Will win: RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes, Nickel Boys

  • A Complete Unknown: James Mangold and Jay Cocks
  • Conclave: Peter Straughan
  • Emilia Pérez: Jacques Audiard; in collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Lea Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi
  • Nickel Boys: RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes
  • Sing Sing: Greg Kwedar and Clint Bentley; story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield

Writing (Original Screenplay)

What’s the old cliché —the film that should win best picture usually wins best screenplay instead? This year, we predict both awards go the same direction, but we’d love to see one messy piece of female rage get it instead.

Should win: Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Will win: Sean Baker, Anora

  • Anora: Sean Baker
  • The Brutalist: Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold
  • A Real Pain: Jesse Eisenberg
  • September 5: Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; co-written by Alex David
  • The Substance: Coralie Fargeat

Documentary Feature Film

As is often the case, the Academy draws attention to five brilliant nonfiction films, each shining a light on a piece of reality that we would otherwise never see. Vital, brilliant, necessary art, each one of these. Any win is justified.

Should win: No Other Land

Will win: No Other Land

  • Black Box Diaries
  • No Other Land
  • Porcelain War
  • Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
  • Sugarcane

International Feature Film

Here’s another great and wildly varied category.

Should win: I’m Still Here

Will win: I’m Still Here

  • I’m Still Here: Brazil
  • The Girl with the Needle: Denmark
  • Emilia Pérez: France
  • The Seed of the Sacred Fig: Germany
  • Flow: Latvia

Animated Feature Film

This category is such a joy this year, with five of the year’s best features.

Should win: The Wild Robot

Will win: The Wild Robot

  • Flow
  • Inside Out 2
  • Memoir of a Snail
  • Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
  • The Wild Robot

Actor in a Leading Role

Tough call here, but we’re thinking Chalamet’s SAG win gives him the edge over Brody.

Should win: Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Will win: Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

  • Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
  • Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
  • Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
  • Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
  • Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Actress in a Leading Role

Should win: Demi Moore, The Substance

Will win: Demi Moore, The Substance

  • Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
  • Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez
  • Mikey Madison, Anora
  • Demi Moore, The Substance
  • Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

Best Director

Would we cry if Fargeat won this? Tears of joy, maybe. But the likelihood is low and, to be honest, the tightrope Baker walked to give his film an almost slapstick comedic tone (given that it’s a film about a group of mobsters who kidnap a sex worker) is a real testament to his mastery of the craft of direction.

Should win: Sean Baker, Anora

Will win: Sean Baker, Anora

  • Anora: Sean Baker
  • The Brutalist: Brady Corbet
  • A Complete Unknown: James Mangold
  • Emilia Pérez: Jacques Audiard
  • The Substance: Coralie Fargeat

Best Picture

The Substance has a real shot, with Conclave as the upset possibility.

Should win: Anora

Will win: Anora

  • Anora
  • The Brutalist
  • A Complete Unknown
  • Conclave
  • Dune: Part Two
  • Emilia Pérez
  • I’m Still Here
  • Nickel Boys
  • The Substance

The Academy Awards are Sunday, March 2nd, live on ABC and Hulu with Conan O’Brien hosting.

New In Theaters

Soul Salvage

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Emilia Pérez

by George Wolf

I’ll tell ya what, this year in movies is heading toward the finish line with some mighty ambitious swings.

In just the last few weeks, Francis Ford Coppola’s Megalopolis and Todd Phillips’s Joker: Folie à Deux brought grand, messy visions to the big screen. Such commitment is easy to appreciate, which made the results even more frustrating.

Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez offers similar vision and commitment, but has more success finding the humanity and resonance to make it memorable.

And plenty polarizing too, no doubt.

Audiard, the French filmmaker known for simmering, intense dramas such as A Prophet and Rust and Bone, delivers his first Spanish language project as a transgender musical crime thriller that beats the odds. This brash clash of styles could easily bury the chance for true joy or heartbreak, but these characters will not be denied.

The always welcome Zoe Saldana is instantly sympathetic as Rita, an overworked and underpaid attorney in Mexico City who get a surprising offer from a frightening new client. Feared cartel boss Manitas Del Monte (Karla Sofía Gascón) needs Rita’s help to retire from his business, fake his death, and start a new life as Emilia Perez – the woman he has always dreamed of becoming.

Del Monte’s wife Jessi (Selena Gomez, terrifically against type) and their two young children are more obstacles for Rita to navigate. Emilia still wants them in her life, but doesn’t want them told of her life change.

After a long career as Juan Carlos Gascón, this is Karla’s first film since transitioning, and she plays the dual roles with wonderful clarity. Del Monte is sinister and mysterious, while Emilia glows from the freedom to “love myself as I am.” With Rita’s continued assistance, Emilia dedicates her life to changing her soul, and helping to solve the thousands of missing persons casualties from her former line of work.

Audiard – who also co-wrote the script and several of the original soundtrack tunes – doesn’t seem much concerned with balancing the film’s many tones. Instead, he throws melodrama, romance, lust, humor, noir, and camp at us with unapologetic zest and life-affirming music. These musical set pieces are uniquely well-staged and evocative, adding to the intoxicating nature of the film’s pull.

Gascón, Saldana and Gomez craft a fascinating triangle – one thrown into chaos with the arrival of Jessi’s boyfriend Gustavo (Edgar Ramirez), and their plan to get what Jessi feels she’s long deserved.

If you’re thinking this all sounds like a super-sized telenovela, I get it. And honestly, there’s a decent chance Audiard’s new fondness for the overt won’t let you see Emilia Perez as anything else.

But there is more here. As Emilia herself says, “I lack singing.” Give the film room enough to blend its many voices, and you’ll find some surprisingly touching, blood-soaked harmony.