It was a short year. It didn’t feel short, but in Oscar terms, it was unusually brief. In 2020, the Academy extended the awards window to make up for the fact that so few films were distributed during the beginning of the pandemic. Fair enough, but that meant the window for 2021 films was only 9 months long.

Plus, because the industry still hasn’t fully recovered, fewer films were released than had been between the months of March and December in pre-pandemic years. However you count it, the Academy had far fewer films to choose from than normal.

Still, some great movies emerged, and they generated some great Oscar nominations. Here’s who we think will take home gold.

Best Film

Nominees

• Belfast
• CODA
• Don’t Look Up
• Drive My Car
• Dune
• King Richard
• Licorice Pizza
• Nightmare Alley
• The Power of the Dog
• West Side Story

Should Win

Hope: Licorice Pizza

George: West Side Story

Will Win

Hope: CODA

George: The Power of the Dog

Best Director

Nominees

• Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
• Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
• Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
• Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
• Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Should Win

Jane Campion

Will Win

Jane Campion

Best Actress

Nominees

• Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
• Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
• Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
• Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
• Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Should Win

Jessica Chastain

Will Win

Jessica Chastain

Best Actor

Nominees

• Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
• Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
• Andrew Garfield, Tick…Tick…Boom!
• Will Smith, King Richard
• Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Should Win

Benedict Cumberbatch

Will Win

Will Smith

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees

• Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
• Troy Kotsur, CODA
• Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
• J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
• Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Should Win

Kodi Smit-McFee

Will Win

Troy Kostur

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees

• Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
• Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
• Judi Dench, Belfast
• Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
• Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Should Win

Kirsten Dunst

Will Win

Ariana DeBose

Best Animated Feature

Nominees

• Encanto
• Flee
• Luca
• The Mitchells vs. The Machines
• Raya and the Last Dragon

Should Win

Flee

Will Win

Encanto

Best Documentary

Nominees

• Ascension
• Attica
• Flee
• Summer of Soul (…or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
• Writing with Fire

Should Win

Flee or Summer of Soul

Will Win

Summer of Soul

Best International Film

Nominees

• Drive My Car, Japan
• Flee, Denmark
• Hand of God, Italy
• Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom, Bhutan
• The Worst Person in the World, Norway

Should Win

Drive My Car

Will Win

Drive My Car

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees

• CODA
• Drive My Car
• Dune
• The Lost Daughter
• The Power of the Dog

Should Win

The Power of the Dog

Will Win

The Power of the Dog

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees

• Belfast
• Don’t Look Up
• King Richard
• Licorice Pizza
• The Worst Person in the World

Should Win

Licorice Pizza

Will Win

Licorice Pizza (although we wouldn’t count out Don’t Look Up)

Best Original Song

• “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die
• “Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto
• “Down to Joy” from Belfast
• “Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days
• “Be Alive” from King Richard

Should Win

“Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up (but it wasn’t even nominated, so seems pretty unlikely…)

Will Win

“Dos Oruguitas”

Catch the 94 Academy Awards March 27th on ABC.